New method of predicting the occurrence of road accidents in Ukraine

Valerii Vyrozhemskyi, Liudmyla Nahrebelna, Minenko Yevhen, Nataliia Bidnenko

Last modified: 2023-06-05

Abstract


Insufficient road safety level remains a serious problem in Ukraine. The number of people killed in road accidents in 2018 per 100 thousand of population is 9,11, while in the countries of the European Union, on average, this indicator is 5-6 deaths per 100 thousand of population. The growing number of vehicles and road users increases the likelihood of road accidents and, accordingly, the number of the suffered people increases. This regularity can be noted not only in our country, but also in the countries over the world. Method of prospective extrapolation is proposed for the prevention of road accidents which makes it possible to transfer the trends and links connected with the occurrence of road accidents in the past to the current period and for the future. To apply this method, it is necessary to have a qualitative statistical analysis of the road accident data. This provides an opportunity to foresee the occurrence of a particular type of accident, its location and the causes affecting its occurrence. By using the prospective extrapolation method, it is possible to reduce the number of road accidents and the severity of their consequences, including reducing the number of fatal accidents to a minimum.

Keywords


road safety, road accidents, road conditions

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