Alteration in road-based mobility services in cities is expected due to introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs). On-demand and shared services based on small capacity AVs emerge, which influence the modal share. The alteration has been estimated by simulation of scenarios; the travellers’ willingness-to-shift to an AV-based mobility service has been considered as a random variable in studies. In our developed modal share estimation method, the travellers’ current mobility habits and willingness-to-shift are considered. To determine the value of variables, a questionnaire survey was elaborated. The method was applied to calculate the modal shift in Budapest, Hungary. According to the results, willingness-to-shift is the highest among car users and the lowest among bikers. Based on the stated preferences, individual car use can be reduced by shared, on-demand, AV-based mobility services. Our method is applicable to determine the impacts of AVs.

autonomous vehicle; autonomous vehicle-based mobility service; modal share; modal shift; willingness-to-shift