Analysis of willingness to pay for slope failure reconstruction in the Democratic Republic of Timor Leste: using survival time analysis

Yuki Minematsu, Makoto Fujiu, Yuma Morisaki, Yosuke Kon, Junichi Takayama

Last modified: 2024-05-23

Abstract


The Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste has a rainy season and a dry season, and heavy rains cause numerous landslides and floods in the rainy season. In many cases, road capacity is reduced as a result of landslides, and accessibility between urban and rural areas is significantly reduced. In April 2021, Cycolne Seroja attacked Timor-Leste, causing enormous flood damage and landslides. Slope failure reconstruction work requires construction equipment, human resources, and financial resources. The Timor-Leste government has a plan for road maintenance in its Strategic Development Plan 2011-2030, but there is no mention of financial resources. Although it is necessary to establish a budget for road maintenance based on taxes from the public, there is no such system in place. In this study, we conducted a survey to determine the extent to which Timorese citizens are willing to pay for the reconstruction of roads. The purpose of this study is to determine the factors that influence the willingness to pay for road reconstruction by time period, and to identify trends in the willingness of Timorese citizens to pay for road reconstruction. Four patterns of recovery periods are assumed: one week, one month, three months, and six months for road reconstruction after a slope failure. As a result, we found that the longer the recovery period, the greater the difference in the probability of payment by gender, with the probability of payment tending to be higher for women. The probability of payment tends to be lower for the younger age group regardless of the recovery period.

Keywords


Timor Les te , survival analysis, willingne ss to pay, r o ad capa city